[Semicon Korea 2018 project]
The global semiconductor packaging materials market is expected to reach $ 17.8 billion (about 19.8 trillion won) by 2021, a slight increase from $ 16.7 billion in 2017 (about 18.6 trillion won). Continuous pressure for cost reduction and slowed consumption of materials, combined with the rapid growth of small and thin packaging form factors are obstacles to growth.
According to the Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook released by SEMI and TechSearch, the production of packaging materials such as laminate substrates, lead frames, underfills, and copper wire will remain unchanged until 2021 with single digit growth. The growth of wafer-level packaging (WLP) dielectrics is currently small, but strong growth is expected by 2021.
The key driver of semiconductor packaging technology is smartphones. Currently, its market growth is stagnant, but there are more than 60 to 70 packages in one high-end smartphone. Wafer-level packaging is also increasing. They are applied to many products such as representative package solutions (FBGA, FLGA, QFN, etc.). Power amplifiers(PA), front end modules (FEM), and radio frequency (RF) connectivity devices use a system-in-package (SiP).
In addition to smartphones, connectivity, big data processing, high performance computing, data storage, advanced memory and automotive electronics lead to high value-added packaging in the semiconductor industry. Packaging technologies include silicon interposers that provide heterogeneous integration and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
In recent years, memory packaging has entered an inflection point as the demand for next generation memory flip chips increases. With low latency and low power, high bandwidth memory demand has increased the adoption of silicon passive electrode (TSV) technology. The automotive application market is growing in the semiconductor industry, as more and more automotive electronics are available and packaging provides key performance and reliability.
Packages with wires attached are expected to grow in the future, but packaging and assembly are increasing at the wafer level. Flip-chip packaging applications are expanding to high-performance applications. Flip chips, seen in high-end devices such as supercomputers, servers, network systems and PCs, are moving to radio frequency (RF) devices and filters in smartphones. Copper pillar connection technology has also increased.
The continued growth of mobile products is expanding the application of wafer-level packages for both fan-in and fan-out (FO) applications. In particular, the fan-out wafer-level packaging (FO-WLP) has no substrate and is evaluated as a disruptive technology in the packaging materials market using thin-film metallization instead of bump or wire for electrical connection. The wafer-level package dielectrics market is also expected to grow by 20% annually until 2021.
Meanwhile, the production of laminated substrates, which accounts for more than one-third of the packaging materials market, is expected to grow at a rate of less than 2% per year in 2017-2021. Flip Chip Chip Scale Packaging (CSP) will grow the most and plastic ball grid array (PBGA) production will decline. The market for laminate substrates in 2017 is $ 6.2 billion.
Lead frame shipments are expected to increase by an annual average of 3.9% from 2017 to 2021. The market is expected to reach $ 3.2 billion (2017), the second largest after laminate substrates in the packaging materials market. Lead frame-based chip-scale packages (QFN) are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8%. However, the overall lead frame sales are expected to decline by 1.4% per year.
Bond wire shipments are expected to continue growing below 3% by 2017-2021. Gold wire shipments have increased from 2016 to 2017 after shrinking in 2011-2015. The gold wire market accounted for 37% (2017). Copper wire shipments accounted for the largest portion (52%).
The survey was conducted on more than 130 semiconductor companies. Semiconductor packaging materials in the report include substrates, lead frames, bonding wires, mold compounds, underfill materials, liquid encapsulants, die bonding, solder balls, and wafer level package dielectrics.